Q4 2026 forward data shows ADR still struggling to beat 2025: 5 of the first 8 months of the year recorded a year-on-year decline, an average drop of -0.5% across the eight months for Roomex clients. Only 3 of the 8 months exceeded the same period last year, and forward data suggests this is unlikely to change through the final months of 2026, despite a lift in early autumn (weeks 37-39) when business travel returned. That lift was strongest in 4* hotels, and 3* showed a similar but less pronounced rise. It doesn’t appear to be sticking, as price-pressed business and leisure travellers are pushing back on higher room night prices.
The wider economy remains sluggish, with UK GDP moving between 0 and 0.5%. The Composite PMI is positive at 52 (August) and Manufacturing edged up to 52, but Construction remains negative at 44 (September). On the supply side, volatile energy costs, driven by Middle East geopolitics, are pressuring hotels with high energy needs, and the same input-cost squeeze is hitting workforce companies through diesel and electricity prices. Gateway cities such as London remain the most dynamic regions and continue to chase price gains through the autumn, while secondary locations and regions are more subdued.
The clearest shift is among the chains. Independents took share from chains in 2025 through nimble, aggressive pricing, but in recent weeks chains have been getting more aggressive on price as occupancy becomes harder to find. The dominant UK chains have not repeated last year’s strong price lift, holding a cooler ADR aimed at preserving occupancy, which helps business travellers who prefer brand consistency. For buyers in the crucial RFP period, forward data into 2027 points to slightly higher ADR growth than this year, but not much. Real relief, such as a resolution to Middle East oil supply issues after the US mid-terms, looks more like a 2027 story than a 2026 one.
Download
